基于状态指标的更新决策方法研究

针对设备在实际运行和执行任务时经常涉及到维修、更新报废等管理活动缺乏定量模型支撑的问题,提出了利用典型部件的预测寿命和非典型部件的历史寿命对设备系统级的健康状态进行综合评估的方法,建立了一种以状态指标为决策序列的动态规划更新决策方法。该方法能综合考虑维修费用和更新费用,确定最优更新决策,降低保障费用,有效的提高了设备的经济效益。最后经过案例分析证明了该方法的有效性,对于提高设备的保障能力和经济效益提供了理论支撑和方法指导。     

基于功能的结构体系目标可靠度优化决策

根据“投资－效益”准则，提出了基于功能的结构体系目标可靠度优化决策的三种模型：概念模型、参数规划法模型和约束放松法模型；并根据最优性条件Kuhn-Tucher条件证明了当基于功能的结构体系可靠度约束均为作用约束时，参数规划法模型和约束放松法模型的等价性；最后对钢筋混凝土框架结构基于不同抗震功能的目标可靠度指标进行了优化计算。     

基于VIKOR和关联系数的犹豫三角模糊语言多属性决策方法

针对属性评价值为犹豫三角模糊语言集的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于VIKOR方法的犹豫三角模糊语言多属性决策方法.首先定义了犹豫三角模糊语言集的相关概念.然后运用VIKOR和关联系数方法,在可接受优势和决策过程稳定的条件下对方案进行择优,在理论分析的基础上,提出了这种新方法的计算步骤.并构建了确定最优属性权重的非线性规划模型,研究了当专家权重和属性权重未知情况下的犹豫三角模糊语言多属性决策方法.最后通过实例说明了该方法的有效性和可行性.     

多集值信息表中的多粒度模糊决策论粗糙集

多粒度粗糙集和决策论粗糙集是Pawlak粗糙集的重要推广,目前已成为人工智能研究的热点.然而,它们大多处理的都是单值信息系统中的问题.而实际生活中绝大多数都是处理多值问题,为了解决这一问题,在多集值信息表中将多粒粗糙集与模糊决策论粗糙集相结合进行研究,提出了其在乐观,悲观情形下的上下近似,研究了一些相关性质并给出了多集值信息表中的多粒度模糊决策论粗糙集精度、粗度的概念,最后通过一个具体例子验证其有效性.     

Optimal consumption and investment problem with random horizon in a BMAP model

In this paper, we consider the consumption and investment problem with random horizon in a Batch Markov Arrival Process (BMAP) model. The investor invests her wealth in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky asset. The price processes of the riskless asset and the risky asset are modulated by a continuous-time Markov chain, which is the phase process of a BMAP. The possible consumption or investment are restricted to a sequence of random discrete time points which are determined by the same BMAP. The investor has only consumption opportunities at some of these random time points, has both consumption and investment opportunities at some other random time points, and can do nothing at the remaining random time points. The object of the investor is to select the consumption–investment strategy that maximizes the expected total discounted utility. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the consumption–investment opportunity and the economic state on the value functions and consumption–investment strategies. The general solution and the exact solution under the assumption that the consumption and the terminal wealth are evaluated by the power utility are obtained. Finally, a numerical example is presented.     

地下水脆弱性风险预警和评估的区间三角模糊多属性决策模型

应用基于逼近理想解排序法的区间三角模糊多属性决策模型,对三江平原六大分区地下水脆弱性进行了风险预警和评估.评估结果与前人吻合,可为有关决策部门采取相应降低环境风险的措施提供参考.实例验证表明,模型具有更高的计算精度和更好的评价效果,为有关环境风险决策部门对地下水风险预警和评估提供了新的思路和方法.     

Correlation coefficient of dual hesitant fuzzy sets and its application to multiple attribute decision making

A dual hesitant fuzzy set (DHFS) consists of two parts, that is, the membership hesitancy function and the nonmembership hesitancy function, supporting a more exemplary and flexible access to assign values for each element in the domain, and can handle two kinds of hesitancy in this situation. It can be considered as a powerful tool to express uncertain information in the process of group decision making. Therefore, we propose a correlation coefficient between DHFSs as a new extension of existing correlation coefficients for hesitant fuzzy sets and intuitionistic fuzzy sets and apply it to multiple attribute decision making under dual hesitant fuzzy environments. Through the weighted correlation coefficient between each alternative and the ideal alternative, the ranking order of all alternatives can be determined and the best alternative can be easily identified as well. Finally, a practical example of investment alternatives is given to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed approach.     

贴牌生产供应链混合渠道构建基础及优化机理研究

研究由制造商和品牌商组成的混合渠道贴牌生产供应链渠道结构优化问题,制造商通过直销和贴牌两条渠道销售产品.通过与单一渠道比较,分别推导出制造商和品牌商选择混合渠道的依据和优越性,进而归纳出双方共同接受混合渠道的制造商生产成本和品牌商品牌溢价优化条件,分析了渠道转移系数对双方构建混合渠道结构条件的影响,得出了制造商生产成本和品牌商品牌溢价作为竞争要素的互动决策改进贴牌供应链整体绩效的优化机理.     

Dynamic models of segregation†

Some segregation results from the practices of organizations, some from specialized communication systems, some from correlation with a variable that is non‐random; and some results from the interplay of individual choices. This is an abstract study of the interactive dynamics of discriminatory individual choices. One model is a simulation in which individual members of two recognizable groups distribute themselves in neighborhoods defined by reference to their own locations. A second model is analytic and deals with compartmented space. A final section applies the analytics to ‘neighborhood tipping.’ The systemic effects are found to be overwhelming: there is no simple correspondence of individual incentive to collective results. Exaggerated separation and patterning result from the dynamics of movement. Inferences about individual motives can usually not be drawn from aggregate patterns. Some unexpected phenomena, like density and vacancy, are generated. A general theory of ‘tipping’ begins to emerge.